[为了让茅台酒渠道变得更加透明、合理以及减少权力“寻租”现象,从2018年下半年以来,茅台自身的营销体制改革正式拉开序幕。2019年以来,茅台成立集团营销公司,与电商、商超强强联合,加大直销和扁平化力度。]

Since the second half of 2018, maotai's own marketing system has been reformed to make maotai's channels more transparent, rational and less \"rent-seeking \". Since 2019, Moutai has set up a group marketing company, which combines with e-commerce and commercial super-strong to increase direct sales and flattening. ]

  2020年1月2日早间,贵州茅台发布公告称,初步核算,2019年度生产茅台酒基酒约万吨,系列酒基酒约万吨;2019年度实现营业总收入885亿元左右,同比增长15%左右;实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润405亿元左右,同比增长15%左右。公司2020年度计划安排营业总收入同比增长10%。

Early in the morning of January 2,2020, Guizhou Moutai announced that preliminary accounting,2019 production of Maotai liquor base about 10,000 tons, series of liquor base about 10,000 tons;2019 to achieve total revenue of 88.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 15%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies about 40.5 billion yuan, an increase of about 15%. The company plans to arrange a year-on-year increase of 10% in total operating income in 2020.

  这份业绩预告立即在资本市场中引起“骚动”。1月2日上午开盘后,茅台股价盘中大跌逾%。截至下午收盘时,股价仍跌%,报1130元。伴随着股价大跌,股票全日成交额也骤然放大,达到167亿元。上一交易日,股价全天交易额也仅有亿元。

The earnings forecast immediately caused a \"stir\" in the capital markets. After opening on the morning of January 2, Moutai shares plunged more than% in intraday trading. Shares were still down% at $1,130 as of the afternoon close. With the share price plummeting, the stock's full-day turnover also suddenly magnified to 16.7 billion yuan. The previous trading day, the full-day trading share price of only 100 million yuan.

  在2017年、2018年,贵州茅台的营收增速分别保持在%、%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润增速也分别为%和30%。如今,2019年业绩低于预期,主要受哪些因素拖累?

In 2017 and 2018, Guizhou Moutai's revenue growth was maintained at% and% respectively, and the net profit growth rate attributable to shareholders of listed companies was also% and 30% respectively. Today, performance in 2019 is lower than expected, and what are the main factors dragging down?

  从往期报表来看,茅台88%收入来源于茅台酒销售。以此推算的话,2019年茅台酒的销售额在亿元左右。按照茅台酒标准的一斤装出厂价969元/瓶、一吨2124瓶来算,折换成茅台酒的销量大概在万吨。这样的销量其实已超过公司前期计划的销量。2018年底,茅台曾发布公告称,公司2019年度茅台酒销售计划为万吨左右。

From the past statements, Moutai 88% of the revenue from Moutai liquor sales. According to this calculation, the sales of Maotai wine in 2019 are about 100 million yuan. According to the standard price of 969 yuan per bottle and 2124 bottles per ton, the sales volume of converted Maotai wine is about 10,000 tons. Such sales have actually surpassed pre-planned sales. At the end of 2018, Moutai had announced that the company's 2019 sales plan for Maotai wine was about 10,000 tons.

  有私募人士对第一财经记者表示,茅台酒品牌地位以及市场优势短期是无法撼动的,这一点是毋庸置疑的,但不排除这次业绩有人为调节的因素在。“茅台的发货量是在增长的,从之前看,数据也不错,但现在的业绩增速仅有15%,是有些矛盾的,也许是内部调节结果。”

There is no doubt that maotai's brand status and market advantages are unshakeable in the short term, but it does not rule out an artificial adjustment in this performance. \"Moutai's shipments are growing, and the data are good from the previous point of view, but the current growth rate is only 15%, is somewhat contradictory, perhaps the result of internal adjustment.\"

  为了让茅台酒渠道变得更加透明、合理以及减少权力“寻租”现象,从2018年下半年以来,茅台自身的营销体制改革正式拉开序幕。这场营销体制改革直接触及茅台传统的以专卖店和特约经销商为主的渠道利益。在这场变革当中,一批违规的经销商被清理出局,同时还伴随着多位高管也因涉嫌受贿被查。在过去的2019年,茅台继续推进营销体系改革。2019年以来,茅台成立集团营销公司,与电商、商超强强联合,加大直销和扁平化力度。

In order to make Maotai liquor channel more transparent, reasonable and reduce the phenomenon of power \"rent-seeking \", since the second half of 2018, Moutai's own marketing system reform has officially begun. The reform of the marketing system directly touches on the traditional channel interests of Maotai specialty stores and special dealers. In the course of the change, a group of illegal dealers were cleared, accompanied by a number of executives being prosecuted for bribery. In the past 2019, Moutai has continued to promote the reform of the marketing system. Since 2019, Moutai has set up a group marketing company, which combines with e-commerce and commercial super-strong to increase direct sales and flattening.

  在近日的茅台2019年经销商大会上,茅台董事长李保芳指出,2013年之后,面对宏观经济下行和行业深度调整带来的双重压力和影响,茅台酒市场一度陷入困境,并一直持续到2016年上半年。从2016年下半年以来,茅台千方百计促进价格合理回归,想方设法提高经销商效益,主动适应经济发展新常态,在形势和政策的双重作用和支持下,茅台酒从‘卖不动’到‘不愁卖’,从‘不赚钱’到‘赚大钱’,从买方市场到卖方市场,供需关系发生了根本性转变。2019年是茅台营销工作中极为特殊的一年,这一年里,茅台酒销售公司班子全面调整;专项整治深入推进;市场异常紧张,供需矛盾加大;经销队伍情绪不稳;市场把控难度增大。

At the recent Moutai's 2019 dealer conference, Moutai chairman Li Baofang pointed out that after 2013, in the face of double pressure and impact from the macroeconomic downturn and industry depth adjustment, the Moutai wine market was once in trouble and continued until the first half of 2016. Since the second half of 2016, maotai has done everything possible to promote the rational return of prices, find ways to improve the efficiency of dealers, and actively adapt to the new normal of economic development. With the dual role and support of the situation and policy, maotai wine has undergone a fundamental change in supply and demand relationship from ‘ not to make money ' to ‘ make big money ' from the buyer market to the seller market. 2019 is a very special year in maotai marketing work, this year, maotai wine sales company team overall adjustment; special regulation in-depth promotion; market tension, supply and demand contradictions increased; distribution team mood instability; market control difficulty increased.

  李保芳表示,茅台当前仍然面临的“三大突出问题”,即:“统”的力度不够;(专项整治)顾虑尚未完全消除;新的营销体系还有短板。

Mr li said moutai was still facing \"three outstanding problems \", namely:\" unified\" efforts are not enough;(special rectification) concerns have not been completely eliminated; the new marketing system has a short board.

  “茅台整个销售系统目前还没有形成足够的合力,缺乏从大局和全盘上对市场的把控,缺乏系统性的研究和统筹。有的干部和个别经销商顾虑多,工作见子打子、得过且过,该干的没有干、该干好的没有到位。茅台新的营销体系,主要是新机制、新规则虽已初步建立,但运行仍未完全达到预期,亟待完善和优化;商超、电商、团购等渠道尚未完全理顺,经销商基础管理亟待加强;第三代茅台专卖店建设推进情况不尽如人意,线上线下的互动和联动还有大量工作要做。”李保芳认为。

“Moutai sales system has not yet formed enough joint efforts, lack of overall control over the overall market, lack of systematic research and coordination. Some cadres and individual dealers worry a lot, work see son beat son, muddle by, should do not do, should do good not in place. The new marketing system of maotai mainly consists of the new mechanism and new rules, but the operation is not fully up to expectations, so it needs to be improved and optimized. Li Baofang thinks.

  发布业绩点评称,茅台酒的市场供需关系依然紧俏,增长放缓不代表需求变化,主要是由茅台自身供给决定。2019年是渠道调整最大的一年,2020年将完善渠道建设并强化渠道掌控力。

The market's supply-demand relationship remains tight, and a slowdown in growth does not represent a change in demand, mainly determined by Moutai's own supply, according to a performance review. 2019 is the biggest year of channel adjustment, and 2020 will improve channel construction and strengthen channel control.

  值得一提的是,2019年12月底,茅台方面亦对外公布了2020年茅台酒销售计划为万吨左右,相比较于2019年销售计划万吨多3500吨。

It is worth noting that at the end of December 2019, Moutai also announced a 2020 Maotai wine sales plan of about 10,000 tons, compared to the 2019 sales plan of more than 3,500 tons.

  分析师余春生发布报告表示,茅台2020年放量为主线,此外通过调整渠道结构再次增厚公司利润。“公司基于考虑茅台酒涨价太快等社会政治因素,出厂价提价相对比较敏感。在前期通过放量,以及加大自营和商超投放量调整渠道结构再次增厚公司利润的情况下,公司业绩能保障实现稳健增长。”

Analysts Yu Chunsheng issued a report that Maotai 2020 release as the main line, in addition to by adjusting the channel structure to increase the company's profits again. \"Based on the consideration of social and political factors such as the price increase of Maotai wine too fast, the ex-factory price increase is relatively sensitive. In the early years through the volume, and increase self-operation and business super-investment to adjust the channel structure to increase the profits of the company again, the company's performance can ensure a sound growth.\"


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