国际金价实现连续第四周收阳,涨幅达到%,盘中创下四个月新高至美元/盎司,逼近去年9月初录得的近六年高位1557美元/盎司。因美国空袭炸死伊拉克境内的伊朗重要军政目标,促使投资者涌向安全资产。

International gold closed for the fourth week in a row, up%, hitting a four-month high to $US\/oz, near the nearly six-year high of $US1557\/oz recorded in early September last year. Investors rushed to secure assets as US air strikes killed key Iranian military targets in Iraq.

  美国周五(1月3日)在伊拉克巴格达机场发动一场空袭,使得伊朗和美国及其以色列和沙特等主要盟友之间在中东的“影子战争”急剧加剧。伊朗当局誓言将予以强力报复。

The \"shadow war \"between Iran and the United States and its key allies, including Israel and Saudi Arabia, intensified sharply in the Middle East on Friday (January 3) in an airstrike at Iraqi airport in Baghdad. Iranian authorities have vowed to retaliate forcefully.

  美国国防部称,伊朗精英部队圣城军(QudsForce)指挥官QassemSoleimani和伊拉克民兵组织头目AbuMahdial-Muhandis在美国针对巴格达机场的空袭中丧生。

Qassem Soleimani, commander of Iran's elite forces, the Al-Quds Force, and Abu Mahdial-Muhandis, head of the Iraqi militia, were killed in U.S. airstrikes against Baghdad airport, the U.S. Defense Department said.

  美国总统特朗普周五(1月3日)称:“我们昨晚采取行动是为了阻止一场战争。我们采取行动并不是为了挑起一场战争。”

\"We acted last night to stop a war,\" US President Donald Trump said on Friday (January 3). We have not acted to provoke a war.

  特朗普说,在美国空袭中丧生的伊朗圣城旅指挥官Soleimani正策划短时间内发动针对美国人的袭击。他还补充称,美国不寻求伊朗政权更迭。

Soleimani, commander of Iran's Al-Quds Brigade, who was killed in U.S. airstrikes, is planning an attack on Americans in a short time, Trump said. He added that the United States does not seek regime change in Iran.

  里士满联储主席巴尔金周五表示,美国经济依然“健康”,且可能继续增长,但美国和伊朗之间的紧张局势加剧提醒人们,外部冲击仍可能破坏美国长达逾十年的经济复苏。

Richmond fed chairman mr. barkin said friday the economy remains \"healthy\" and likely to continue to grow, but heightened tensions between the u.s. and iran are a reminder that external shocks could still undermine the nation's recovery for more than a decade.

  HighRidgeFutures金属交易主管DavidMeger称:“特朗普总统下令美军连夜空袭伊拉克,伊朗领导人誓言报复,结果,股票市场下跌,避险资产上涨,导致贵金属走高。自升穿1490美元以来,金市交投良好。”

\"President Trump ordered U.S. military airstrikes overnight in Iraq, and Iranian leaders vowed revenge, resulting in a fall in the stock market and higher risk-averse assets that led to higher precious metals,\" said David Meger, head of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. The gold market has traded well since rising to $1,490.\"

  美国总统特朗普称,他期待于1月15日之前同中方签署第一阶段经贸协议。投资者认为随着贸易方面的乐观情绪点亮全球经济增长的前景,美国经济表现优于其他经济体的情况可能即将终结,进而施压美元。

U.S. President Donald Trump says he expects to sign the first phase of an economic and trade deal with China by January 15. Investors believe that as trade optimism brightens the outlook for global economic growth, the U.S. economy's outperform of other economies may be coming to an end, putting pressure on the dollar.

  美国供应管理协会(ISM)周五公布的数据显示,12月美国制造业指数降至十年最低,新订单和就业分项指数均处于多年低位,不佳数据打击了人们对于制造业萎缩步伐放缓的预期。贸易紧张局势给制造业带来了打击。这进一步支撑金价。

The U.S. manufacturing index fell to a decade-low in December, with new orders and employment sub-indexes at multi-year lows, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Supply Management Association (ISM), and poor data hit expectations of a slowing pace of manufacturing contraction. Trade tensions have hit manufacturing. This further supports gold prices.

  在2019年下半年的大部分时间里,制造业一直承压,因美国和中国两国针锋相对的关税争端降低了这两个世界最大经济体之间的商品流动,并令全球经济增速放缓。

Manufacturing has been under pressure for much of the second half of 2019 as a tit-for-tat tariff dispute between the United States and China reduces the flow of goods between the world's two largest economies and slows global economic growth.

  ISM制造业调查委员会主席TimothyFiore在一份声明中称:“全球贸易仍是最重要的跨行业问题,但有迹象表明,美国和中国第一阶段贸易协议将给多个行业带来改善。”

  Fiore还表示,除了贸易摩擦造成的拖累外,波音未能让其737Max客机复航也是一个拖累因素,尤其对六大工业领域中最薄弱的运输设备业来说。

In addition to the trade drag, Mr Fiore said Boeing's failure to get its 737 Max back on board was a drag, especially for the weakest of the six industries.

  波音将于本月暂停上述机型的生产,直到监管机构允许其复航,此前该机型发生了两起坠机事件。波音停产或将成为未来几个月的一个阻碍因素,可能会抵消中国和美国第一阶段贸易协议在其他方面带来的改善。

  美国上周申请失业金人数小幅下降,这是美国就业市场的积极信号,但近期有迹象显示,初请失业金人数可能呈现小幅上升的趋势。

The small decline in the number of jobless claims last week was a positive sign in the US job market, but there are recent signs that the number of initial jobless claims could show a slight upward trend.

  投资者正从假期归来,重新调整投资组合。考虑到目前的经济和政治环境,人们对股票市场升至目前高位背后的原因感到不安。股票市场如果出现一定修正,将会有更多资金流入金市。

Investors are returning from the holiday to readjust their portfolio. Given the current economic and political environment, there is unease about the reasons behind the rise of the stock market to its current high. If the stock market is revised, more money will flow into the gold market.

  美联储政策制定者在2019年最后一次政策会议上一致认为,利率可能会“在一段时间内”保持不变,因为美联储正着眼于制定新的货币政策框架。

Fed policymakers agreed at their final policy meeting in 2019 that interest rates could remain unchanged \"for some time\" as the Fed looked to develop a new monetary policy framework.

  美联储周五(1月3日)公布的12月10-11日政策会议纪要还显示,决策者正准备讨论改变其管理金融市场流动性的方式,包括可能设立一个常设回购机制。

The minutes of the Fed's December 10-11 policy meeting, released on Friday (January 3), also showed that policymakers were preparing to discuss ways to change their management of liquidity in financial markets, including the possibility of a permanent repo mechanism.

  美联储的会议纪要通常会反映出,在讨论是否调整货币政策立场时正反两个阵营的观点。但本周公布的上次会议纪要却一反常态,反映出美联储在2019年底达成了高度共识,即联储在年内多次降息,已为防止经济滑入衰退做出了足够的努力。

The Fed's minutes typically reflect the views of both camps when discussing whether to adjust their monetary-policy positions. But the minutes of the last meeting released this week were unusual, reflecting the Fed's high consensus at the end of 2019 that it had repeatedly cut interest rates during the year and had done enough to prevent the economy slipping into recession.

  美国旧金山联储主席戴利周五说,美联储未来数年可能仍将与过低的通胀作斗争,也许需要一个新的政策框架来实现2%的通胀目标。

The Fed may still struggle with too-low inflation for years to come and may need a new policy framework to meet its 2 percent inflation target, San Francisco Fed Chairman Daly said Friday.

  戴利在圣地亚哥举行的美国经济协会年会上表示,低通胀给了美联储将利率保持在低位,并探讨低通胀能将失业率推至多低水平的空间。戴利称:“我们可以在如何定义充分就业水平这个问题上谦逊一点。”

Speaking at the annual meeting of the american economic association in san diego, mr daley said low inflation gave the fed room to keep interest rates low and explore how low inflation could push unemployment to low levels. \"We can be humble about how we define the level of full employment,\" he said. \".

  纪要还显示,各位决策者就一些未来会议上讨论的议题提出了建议,包括“常设回购工具可能发挥的作用”、“设定管理利率”以及美联储所持美债的长期构成等。

The minutes also show that policymakers have made recommendations on the topics discussed at some future meetings, including \"the role that a standing repo tool might play \",\" managing interest rates\" and the long-term composition of the federal reserve's debt holdings.

  不过,在躲过了年底的钱荒后,美联储官员必须尽快决定,每日回购操作要持续多久,以及是否应该设立一个常设回购机制。他们还必须决定此轮购债行动持续的时间,目前的承诺是持续到今年第一季度。

However, after avoiding the end of the year's money crunch, Fed officials must decide as soon as possible how long the daily buyback operation will last and whether a permanent repo mechanism should be set up. They must also decide how long this round of debt-buying will last, and the current pledge is to last through the first quarter of this year.


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